Morning Market Review for June 8, 2021

Soyoil rally underpins good points within the soy complicated

Corn up 3-11 cents
Soybeans up 8-14 cents, soyoil up $0.65/lb, soymeal up $0.70/ton
Wheat up 8-11 cents

*Prices as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning! How are your crops dealing with the warmth? Tell us about it in our Feedback from the Field sequence – your finest supply for crop progress information throughout the nation by farmers and for farmers.

Click right here to take our ongoing farmer survey on crop progress at any level within the 2021 grain season. Our Google Map, up to date each day, offers all previous responses for farm readers. We will present a abstract of farmer insights from throughout the nation on our web site later right now.

Corn

Declining corn circumstances led futures costs $0.03-$0.11/bushel decrease this morning as scorching and dry circumstances, particularly within the Upper Midwest, threaten trendline yield output for the 2021 crop.

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, will launch up to date export information for April 2021 right now. April 2021 U.S. corn exports are usually not prone to high the record-setting volumes shipped within the earlier month however will seemingly nonetheless see one other month of robust loading paces for corn.

Chinese corn purchases proceed to prop up the market, although exports to different nations are additionally 21% larger than a 12 months in the past. China’s ongoing wheat harvest might gradual export paces for U.S. corn to China within the coming weeks, nevertheless it may very well be short-lived, particularly if the Brazilian crop is unable to supply its common patrons with plentiful provides.

In my newest E-corn-omics column, I break down the present state of U.S. corn exports and the way 2021/22 exports might probably play out, given present market circumstances. Spoiler alert – the outlook is sweet, although timing could be the most vital issue for farmers wanting for pricing alternatives over the following 12 months.

Corn circumstances tumbled final week as scorching and dry climate slowed crop growth throughout the Heartland. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report noticed corn scores for the week ending June 6 fall 4% from per week previous to 72% good to wonderful.

Declining scores within the Upper Midwest and Plains paved the way in which for larger costs this morning. Corn crops in North Dakota and South Dakota had been solely rated as 42% and 46% good to wonderful, respectively, in yesterday’s report.

Despite solely planting 7.6% of anticipated 2021 corn acreage, each states had been anticipated to plant 8.9 million acres of corn this 12 months, up 29% from 2020 acres. The struggling crop circumstances within the area might restrict 2021 nationwide corn yields in a 12 months of tightening provides if scorching and dry climate continues to plague the Northern Plains this summer time.

Soybeans

Soybean costs rose this morning on a number of elements. Another dock employees’ strike in Argentina, decrease than anticipated crop scores, and a rally within the soyoil complicated all contributed to a $0.08-$0.14/bushel rise in soybean futures following the in a single day buying and selling session.

A customs officer’s strike at Argentine export terminals right now will seemingly grind grain exports on the planet’s largest soy product exporter to a halt right now as port employees protest gradual COVID-19 vaccination charges. The motion lent energy to good points within the soy complicated this morning. Argentina can also be the world’s third largest exporter of soybeans and corn.

A seven-hour strike right now won’t seemingly have a major impression on grain loading paces, although if Argentine authorities entry to vaccines will not be expedited to the employees within the coming days, it might gradual delivery charges throughout Argentina’s peak grain export season.

Soyoil futures continued larger in a single day after notching a record-high shut yesterday, although costs traded barely beneath new highs set through the Asian buying and selling session in a single day. Global edible oil costs proceed to soar on tight provides, rising world meals demand, and growing biodiesel demand as pre-pandemic driving ranges resume.

Soybean processors proceed to battle to seek out available soybean provides to crush into soyoil. U.S. soybean shares are operating low after an aggressive export season final fall and rising home utilization charges.

“If the crush charges do not sustain tempo, issues are going to get a bit tight within the steadiness sheet come August,” Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst at Futures International, informed Reuters. “It actually all depends upon producer promoting and the provision of soybeans.”

USDA’s Crop Progress report yesterday featured a primary take a look at 2021 soybean circumstances. USDA estimates 67% of anticipated 2021 soybean acres are rated in good to wonderful situation as of Sunday, down from 72% the identical time a 12 months in the past as drought, frost, and funky planting circumstances maintain again optimum crop growth. The studying got here in about 3% decrease than analysts had been anticipating, giving legs to this morning’s value rally on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean planting is basically full, although a couple of states within the Southeast are scrambling to complete up sowing after a moist spring, together with Missouri, Tennessee, and North Carolina. Several of those states are additionally ready on winter wheat harvests to plant double crop soybeans.

Emergence charges proceed to outpace historic targets. As of June 6, 76% of anticipated 2021 soybean acres had emerged, up from the five-year common of 59% for the identical interval.

Not in contrast to baseball, Advance Trading’s Eric Meyer notes how in a sophisticated state of affairs typically specializing in fundamentals helps to resolve points – an finally rating successful runs. In the most recent Ag Marketing IQ column, Meyer coaches farmers on elementary advertising methods to make worthwhile gross sales.

Meyer recommends figuring out operational dangers and customizing a plan accommodating to these constraints. Meyer explains how shopping for name and put choices in numerous situations will help farmers to reduce revenue loss danger.

“As with many instruments you’ve got across the store, if used accurately they are often very useful and mean you can accomplish good work,” Meyer surmises. “Make certain you look for good assets that will help you learn to use the instruments and the dangers related to them.”

Wheat

Rain is anticipated within the Northern Plains right now, offsetting a few of the larger value stress for spring wheat after yesterday’s Crop Progress report slashed situation scores for the crop. Winter wheat harvest delay considerations had been offset by an anticipated 11.2% enhance in Australia’s 2021/22 crop.

With 85% of the 2021 U.S. winter wheat crop headed as of June 6, market focus turned to reap paces as winter wheat harvest progress picked up within the Southern Plains final week. For the week ending final Sunday, 2% of the 2021 winter wheat crop had been harvested, down from 6% a 12 months in the past and the five-year common of seven% for the identical reporting interval.

Cool and moist climate within the Southern Plains this spring slowed harvest paces within the area. Texas solely had 20% of its crop harvested as of Sunday, in comparison with the five-year common of 40% for the identical reporting interval. Similarly, Oklahoma was solely 2% full with harvest whereas the five-year common stood at 17%.

But it’s nonetheless early within the harvest season to start out worrying about gradual harvest paces. And the identical cool and moist climate circumstances that delayed harvest are optimum for yield growth within the last levels of plant maturation. Crop scores improved 2% on the week due to the additional rain, rising to 50% good to wonderful.

Spring wheat circumstances weren’t so lucky over the previous week as a warmth wave roasted lingering excessive drought circumstances throughout the Northern Plains. For the week ending June 6, spring wheat scores tumbled 5% decrease.

Now solely 38% of anticipated 2021 spring wheat acreage is rated in good to wonderful situation, in comparison with final 12 months’s ranking of 82% for the identical interval. With over 4% fewer spring wheat acres planted in 2021 in comparison with the prior 12 months, Minneapolis futures costs might proceed to take pleasure in substantial value appreciation as spring wheat yield outlooks decline.

Weather

Steady showers are anticipated within the Northern Plains right now, in line with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Over an inch of rain is anticipated in North Dakota, with at the least a half inch anticipated within the Red River Valley and South Dakota over the following 24 hours.

The Eastern Corn Belt may also see substantial rain accumulation right now. The area is prone to see between a half inch and as much as two inches of accumulation over the following 24 hours.

Financials

Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 33,378,767 circumstances as of this morning in line with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The dying toll elevated to 597,983 deaths as of press time. Both metrics have slowed significantly as vaccination charges rise and life begins to return to extra regular patterns.

According to the CDC, practically 52% of the full U.S. inhabitants has obtained at the least one COVID-19 vaccine. Nearly 140 million Americans (42%) are totally vaccinated. Over 2.1 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Markets are largely buying and selling on the hand of climate forecasts. AgMarket.internet’s Matt Bennett offers insights for farmers navigating these unstable markets on when to promote crops in a current Ag Marketing IQ column. But for these wanting for extra advertising insights, think about trying out Farm Future’s Business Summit, to be held June 16-17 on the Coralville Marriot in Coralville, Iowa.

The Summit will characteristic a market analyst panel that may break down present market circumstances and provide insights as to how lengthy this bull market might – or might not – final. For extra data or to register, go to FarmFuturesSummit.com.

Farmers throughout the nation fee tax coverage as a high concern within the post-pandemic period. Farm Financial Strategies affiliate and Next Gen Ag Advocates co-owner Mike Downey gives farmers a number of tax planning methods to pursue as growers look to go on the farm to a brand new era.

In the most recent More than Dirt column, Downey gives farmers 4 tax-planning situations to restrict inheritance publicity. Farmers can do nothing and wait for new tax legal guidelines to be enacted, settle for present tax insurance policies, switch belongings now to keep away from taxes down the highway, or make the most of choices. Downey offers the professionals and cons to every technique and recommends farming households begin making tax plans sooner reasonably than later.

“As with any necessary resolution for your loved ones farm, please seek the advice of along with your authorized advisors who’re most aware of the main points of your state of affairs,” Downey advises. “Please think about beginning these conversations now to get mentally ready for making necessary choices later this 12 months.”

Widespread web outages and bearish market sentiment about commerce information to be launched this morning led to blended outcomes from the inventory market within the in a single day buying and selling session. Dow futures fell 0.05% to $34,597 whereas S&P 500 futures clawed out a 0.15% achieve to $4,232.00.

 

Morning Ag Commodity Prices – 6/8/2021

Contract
Units
High
Low
Last
Net Change
% Change

JUL ’21 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.905
6.8025
6.8575
0.065
0.96%

SEP ’21 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.3275
6.23
6.305
0.095
1.53%

DEC ’21 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.15
6.05
6.13
0.1025
1.70%

MAR ’22 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.2025
6.1125
6.1925
0.1075
1.77%

MAY ’22 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.2225
6.1475
6.2225
0.11
1.80%

JUL ’22 CORN
$ / BSH 
6.2125
6.13
6.2125
0.1075
1.76%

SEP ’22 CORN
$ / BSH 
5.4
5.3675
5.3975
0.03
0.56%

JUL ’21 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
15.815
15.615
15.76
0.1575
1.01%

AUG ’21 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
15.4
15.2325
15.365
0.1425
0.94%

SEP ’21 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.8175
14.67
14.7925
0.14
0.96%

NOV ’21 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.5675
14.42
14.5425
0.1425
0.99%

JAN ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.575
14.4325
14.555
0.14
0.97%

MAR ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.2875
14.16
14.275
0.11
0.78%

MAY ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.2125
14.0875
14.2075
0.0975
0.69%

JUL ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
14.215
14.1175
14.215
0.095
0.67%

AUG ’22 SOYBEANS
$ / BSH 
13.89
#N/A
13.92
0
0.00%

JUL ’21 SOYBEAN OIL 
$ / LB
71.89
70.22
71.74
0.91
1.28%

AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL 
$ / LB
69.31
67.69
69.07
0.9
1.32%

JUL ’21 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
390.7
387.6
389.3
2.4
0.62%

AUG ’21 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
392.9
389.9
391.3
2.1
0.54%

SEP ’21 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
394.3
391.5
392.9
2.2
0.56%

OCT ’21 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
392.8
390.4
391.7
2.2
0.56%

DEC ’21 SOY MEAL
$ / TON
395.3
392.7
394.6
3.1
0.79%

JUL ’21 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH 
6.92
6.81
6.8975
0.0975
1.43%

SEP ’21 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH 
6.9825
6.875
6.9575
0.0925
1.35%

DEC ’21 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH 
7.06
6.9525
7.0375
0.0925
1.33%

MAR ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH 
7.125
7.0575
7.125
0.1025
1.46%

MAY ’22 Chicago SRW
$ / BSH 
7.155
7.11
7.1475
0.085
1.20%

JUL ’21 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH 
6.44
6.3125
6.4125
0.1125
1.79%

SEP ’21 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH 
6.5225
6.3975
6.5125
0.1325
2.08%

DEC ’21 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH 
6.6275
6.515
6.62
0.1325
2.04%

MAR ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH 
6.6675
6.6325
6.6575
0.07
1.06%

MAY ’22 Kansas City HRW
$ / BSH 
6.7075
6.7
6.7075
0.0525
0.79%

JUL ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH 
8.02
7.865
7.955
0.105
1.34%

SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH 
8.0525
7.9
7.99
0.1075
1.36%

DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH 
8
7.8775
7.95
0.1
1.27%

MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH 
7.88
7.87
7.88
0.075
0.96%

MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat
$ / BSH 
7.8
7.8
7.8
0.0625
0.81%

JUN ’21 ICE Dollar Index
$
90.175
89.95
90.075
0.129
0.14%

 JU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL 
69.3
68.47
68.59
-0.64
-0.92%

 AU ’21 Light Crude
$ / BBL 
69.11
68.29
68.41
-0.63
-0.91%

JUL ’21 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.1156
2.092
2.0967
-0.0189
-0.89%

AUG ’21 ULS Diesel
$ /U GAL
2.1177
2.0952
2.0993
-0.0191
-0.90%

JUL ’21 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.197
2.1681
2.1744
-0.0187
-0.85%

AUG ’21 Gasoline
$ /U GAL
2.1925
2.1663
2.1718
-0.0189
-0.86%

AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
150.2
0
0.00%

SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
152.625
0
0.00%

 JU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
116.225
0
0.00%

 AU ’21 Live Cattle
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
117.775
0
0.00%

JUN ’21 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
119.9
0
0.00%

JUL ’21 Live Hogs
$ / CWT
0
#N/A
122.1
0
0.00%

JUN ’21 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
17.11
17.1
17.1
-0.05
-0.29%

JUL ’21 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
17.66
17.57
17.57
-0.05
-0.28%

AUG ’21 Class III Milk
$ / CWT
18.39
18.39
18.39
0
0.00%

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